WITH four rounds left in the SFNL season, we can safely say that the top two has now been locked up by Wentworth and Irymple for the crucial second chance in the finals.
It is now that we turn our interest to the run home for the four teams competing for the final two spots in this years finals series being Ouyen United, Robinvale-Euston, Imperials and at a stretch with every result going their way, Merbein.
While Ouyen should still secure a spot in the finals, their hiccup on the weekend against Imperials has certainly not done them any favours and has put them under unnecessary pressure to still lock down their spot in September and effectively cost them a second chance.
Sitting on eight wins and 32 points, they have the easiest run home with three of the next four games against the bottom three sides in Red Cliffs, South Mildura and Mildura. Based on byes and the remaining contenders runs home, two wins from their last four will secure a finals spot, however, their healthy percentage of 133.8 realistically means only one win should secure their place in the final four.
Robinvale-Euston are currently sharing wins and points with Ouyen United and sit fourth on the ladder with 32 points and also have a strong percentage at 124.44, which is vital coming into the tight race for third and fourth spot.
Robinvale-Euston will have a chance to rest their bodies this weekend and hopefully allow a few players to come back from injury, in particular coach Andrew Richardson, who is crucial to their finals chances. With four wins on the trot, they are one of the form teams of the competition and have a slightly more advantageous draw coming home. They should also secure a spot in the finals. After the bye, they will face Mildura, Ouyen United and Wentworth. Similar to Ouyen United, they have a game up their sleeve on Imperials and two wins should secure their place in the four and possibly just the one win depending on other results may also be enough.
The game that the Eagles should chalk up as a win is Mildura, if they are good enough they shouldn’t drop this one and at this time of the year there are no excuses, if they want it bad enough they will get the four points. The big game is round 17 when they travel to Ouyen United which should definitely be the game of the round and will shape the way finals look. This is absolute must win for both sides. You can absolutely guarantee that if both teams do play finals that this game will be a huge confidence booster for whomever comes away with the points as they will most likely be meeting in an elimination final again two weeks later.
Imperials are still in the hunt with their terrific win away against the more fancied Ouyen United on the weekend. Unfortunately, I think it may just be a little too late for Imps to make their case for September. Early season losses against Red Cliffs in round one and Merbein in round seven are going to come back to haunt them as they are only one game outside of the four and only slightly less than Robinvale-Euston on percentage. If they’d won both those games – and they should have – they would be comfortably sitting in third place, one win clear of both Ouyen United and Robinvale-Euston, and still competing for a double chance being only one game behind Irymple.
The reality though right now is they are not competing for a double chance and they are up against it with their tough run home. They will meet Wentworth next week who will be seething after their lacklustre performance against Irymple on the weekend and will want immediate redemption so I can’t see them winning this game. They should beat Merbein the following week however round 17 they will meet a hot Irymple side and then finish off last round with no chance of securing any points with the bye. This will most likely end up being a season of missed opportunities for Imps and they only have themselves to blame. They are now going to heavily rely on other results unless they can pull off two stunning upsets along the way and even if they do that, it still may not be enough and that would hurt even more!
Merbein is the last side that can mathematically make the finals, when we start talking mathematically though it pretty much means we can rule them out. It is just a matter of when they are completely ruled out, and unfortunately for the Pies that will most likely come this weekend against Irymple.
Not only can Merbein not drop a game from here, they need every other side to do them some big favours to get there! Merbein have a tough run home, although it is not the toughest. This weekend they will meet Irymple and then come up against Imperials, Red Cliffs and South Mildura. Sitting on five wins and 20 points they can still win three of their last four and finish with a respectable season of eight wins and 32 points, but just won’t be enough in the end to get them to September.
With all this in mind I feel that the top four may have been set with Wentworth and Irymple to meet in a second semi-final in the first week and most likely given the run home and form, that Ouyen United and Robinvale-Euston should be playing off in the first semi-final.
If there is one thing I know about Imperials though, it is that they are a very proud and successful club, they will not go down without a fight and they just could be good enough to throw a few late curve balls and upset the most likely outcome. If I were Ouyen United and Robinvale-Euston, I would want to make sure not to let my guard down in any of the last four rounds, as Imps have a history of doing the unthinkable!
