THE Nationals would have retained the seat of Mildura at the 2018 state election under Victoria’s revised electoral boundaries, which will be in place for this year’s election.
An analysis document published by the Victorian Electoral Commission shows The Nationals’ sitting member Peter Crisp would have won the seat over Independent Ali Cupper by just 0.8 per cent under the new boundary structure.
Ms Cupper said she was neither concerned nor uneasy about the new data, and she would recontest the seat on her record.
“I have the firm view that if voters vote on performance then I’ll win because there is tangible evidence that we have really zoomed ahead since becoming an independent seat in 2018,” Ms Cupper said.
“My approach is always hard work and results. Work bloody hard, achieve the results you can achieve and you’ll do pretty well in life.
“Having said that, anything is possible in politics, but I’m not, in any way, concerned or intimidated by big-party candidates.”
While Ms Cupper polled 32.7 per cent of the primary vote in 2018 compared to Mr Crisp’s 39.39 per cent, the independent candidate benefited from strong Labor preferences to win with a 0.68 per cent majority.
Ms Cupper first ran for office in the 2010 state election as a Labor Party candidate, gaining about 20 per cent of votes after the distribution of preferences behind current Mildura councillor Glenn Milne’s 28 per cent and incumbent Mr Crisp’s 51.8 per cent.
Running as an independent candidate in 2014, Ms Cupper’s votes after distribution increased to 28 per cent to Mr Crisp’s 52 per cent before claiming the seat outright with 50.34 per cent of the vote after preferences to Mr Crisp’s 49.66 per cent at the 2018 election.
The Mildura MP said that even renowned election analyst Antony Green had said it was difficult to predict outcomes in seats where there is an independent candidate when most models assume they are a party.
“Each independent has such a unique relationship with their community and it’s difficult for a VEC officer in Canberra to understand those nuances and dynamics,” she said.
“The other thing is that it is effectively based on old data so it assumes that I have built no profile/relationships in the southern Mallee for four years.
“It assumes my profile is exactly where it was in 2018, it also assumes that there is no Liberal candidate, so it doesn’t take into account that when the Libs run against The Nats, the Nationals vote is quite split.
“Even with all of those things it still only shows a very narrow win by the Nats — it’s not like the Nats win a landslide according to the VEC and that would be within a margin of error.
“In 2018, I received information that the Nats were advised that they were going to win the seat by 2 to 5 per cent and that also didn’t come to pass.”
However, Ms Cupper said that as an MP or as a candidate, she was “always curious” about polling and data but “we’ve just got a job to do”.
“I’m completely comfortable in my successes and very proud of my wins,” she said.
“I’ll be putting it to the electorate, as I should, that we should keep doing this because the formula is working.”
The Mildura electorate will this year include the townships of Donald and Charlton, which were previously in the seat of Ripon.
Both Coalition parties have pre-selected candidates to take on Ms Cupper at the November 26 election with Robinvale-based Jade Benham running for The Nationals while the Liberal Party has chosen Paul Mathieson as its candidate.
