MICHAEL O’Brien earned a stay of execution as Victorian Liberal Party leader this week.
But is he a dead man walking at the helm after surviving a leadership spill motion 22 votes to nine on Tuesday?
For Wendy Lovell, the Liberal Member for Northern Victoria, Mr O’Brien is the right person to lead the Liberals into next year’s state election.
“I voted not to spill the leadership,” Ms Lovell said.
“There were nine members who thought there should be a spill, but the vast majority of the party room didn’t feel there was any need to have a vote on a new leader.
“Michael’s working extremely hard and is doing a very good job.”
Polls over the past year have shown Mr O’Brien has struggled to cut through in both the city and regions, despite the Andrews Government’s botching of the COVID-19 hotel quarantine program that led to a crippling second wave and border closures that have sent many businesses to the wall.
Bookies give Mr O’Brien a smokey’s chance of being the next premier in late November 2022.
Sportsbet’s early election market on which party will form government has Labor as a $1.25 favourite and the Coalition at $3.75.
By way of comparison, Scott Morrison was a $5 outsider with bookies to be the next Prime Minister in the lead-up to the 2019 federal election.
Sportsbet thought the result was a fait accompli and made a $5.2 million blunder in paying out early on a Bill Shorten victory.
Ms Lovell believes the Victorian Liberals, even this far out from the next state election, have a “very good chance” of upsetting the Andrews Labor Government.
“The regions are extremely angry at Daniel Andrews and I think in Melbourne there’s growing anger towards him too,” she said.
“For a while people were very compliant with the restrictions because they were scared that hospitals would be overwhelmed and that hundreds of thousands of people were going to die from COVID.
“But now, I think there’s a real sense the Andrews Government has just been incompetent.”
The Coalition, however, will need a strong swing to get enough seats to form government.
The Liberals hold only 31 of 128 members in both houses of State Parliament. Labor has 55 just in the Lower House.
Ms Lovell also dismissed last weekend’s bloodbath for the Liberals in the Western Australia election, believing it won’t be replicated at the next Victorian election.
“It was specific to Western Australia and it’s entirely different to what it’s been in Victoria,” the Shepparton-based Upper House MP said.
“During a pandemic, a government can always look good. And the government over there has managed the pandemic well within the state.
“They haven’t had the same long periods of lockdown as we’ve had in Victoria.”
According to Ms Lovell, the Libs will field a locally based candidate against sitting independent Mildura MP Ali Cupper at next year’s state election.
“It’s likely to be a four-cornered contest (between an independent, Liberal, Nationals and Labor candidates),” she said.
“The Liberals and Nationals will work together to try to bring that seat back into Coalition hands because we want to form government at the next election.”
She also took a swipe at Ms Cupper for joining Reason Party leader Fiona Patten in a coalition.
“I think it can only be bad for Mildura,” Ms Lovell said.
“I find it interesting that Ali has been a Labor candidate in the past and then stood as an independent and now is part of the Reason Coalition.
“The people of Mildura need to know what they are voting for and what they are getting. And if somebody keeps changing their stripes all the time, how can the people trust her?”
Ms Cupper said she linked with Ms Patten to “score the biggest wins I can for Mildura”.
In terms of the Liberals’ vision for north-west Victoria, Ms Lovell said: “We want to see strong regions and a state of cities, rather than a city state of just Melbourne.
“We want to decentralise that and have more of the population moving out to the regions.
“To do that, we’ll be coming out with job-creation and infrastructure-building policies closer to the next election, as well as better connectivity between the regions and Melbourne.”
Ms Lovell said the party would be supportive of passenger rail services returning to Mildura.
She also backed calls for a new hospital in Mildura after it returned to public hands six months ago.
“Public management just doesn’t mean we automatically get a better health service,” she said.
“We do need more investment in health infrastructure for Mildura, which is growing rapidly.
“It’s been disappointing the government hasn’t made any serious investment in the current infrastructure or any commitment to build a new hospital.”
