GROWTH in plantings of oranges, grapes and almonds continued across Sunraysia last year, as water authorities grappled with how to provide water to the crops.
Dr Ben Dyer of the Murray-Darling Basin Authority told farmers last month the "large amount of permanent horticulture" planted in the region, combined with impacts of climate change, could lead to an "increased risk of shortfall".
Already the new plantings relied on water from other parts of the river system, he said, in particular what is known as inter-valley trade from the Murrumbidgee and Goulburn rivers.
One of the farmers tuning into the webinar was Sunraysia citrus grower Kevin Cock, and what he heard worried him.
After the webinar, he tracked down the growth in citrus planting in the region, and found there had been a 25 per cent increase in citrus trees planted in Sunraysia in 2020.
This had come off the back of an 18 per cent increase for the industry in 2018 and a 12 per cent increase in 2015, he said.
A total of 650 hectares of citrus were planted in the region in the two years to June 2020, according to spatial data collected by Sunrise Mapping and Research.
Other industries have also been growing.
About 1225 hectares of table grapes and 230ha of wine grapes were planted in the lower Murray-Darling region in the two financial years to the end of June 2020, according to Sunrise Mapping and Research.
Grape vines for dried fruit production increased by about 500 hectares from 2018 to 2020, taking Victoria's total to about 2500ha, Dried Fruits Australia chief executive Anne Mansell said.
Australia Table Grape Association chief executive Jeff Scott said new table grape plantings might "slow down" this year as "a number of growers may sit back and see how the geopolitical environment (including the export market, coronavirus restrictions and water supply) plays out".
But there will be an increase in water demand as existing plantings reach maturity.
Vines took two to three years to reach full production, Mr Scott said, after which time they needed seven or eight megalitres of water per hectare.
While almond tree plantings had "tapered off since 2016", thousands of hectares in the lower Murray were beginning to reach full production, Almond Board of Australia chief executive Ross Skinner said.
In 2020, he said, 15ha of almonds were planted in Victoria following a huge investment of more than 7700ha planted from 2016 to 2019.
Mature orchards require between 12ML and 14ML of water per hectare to produce 3.2 tonnes of almond kernel, according to the Almond Board of Australia.
The industry has forecast Australia's biggest crop on record this year as trees planted in 2016 begin to reach maturity.
In 2019 Victorian Water Minister Lisa Neville took control of all irrigation developments downstream of the Barmah Choke, announcing no new licences for extraction would be issued, or limit increases granted, unless it could be shown that there will be no increased risks to the environment or entitlement holders.
But existing plantings that were reaching maturity and the plantings that did go in in 2020 would put pressure on water supplies, Mr Cock said.
"We already don't have enough water for what we have in the ground," he said.
Horticultural developments over the past two decades have coincided with climate change impacts including increased temperatures and a reduction in water flowing into the river system, Dr Dyer said, along with increased silt build-up and "a reduced capacity" to transport water through the Barmah Choke.
"Over the last 20 years, inflows to the River Murray system have been about half what they've been in the preceding century," he said.
"But it's not just the reduction in inflows we've seen -- we're definitely seeing increased temperatures. And with that we're getting heatwaves that are more intense, and those intense heatwaves increase our risk of a delivery shortfall -- that short, sharp demand in excess of what we've forecast."
Since 2015, "the total consumptive water use in (Sunraysia) in the summer period is larger than it was before Millenium Drought," Dr Dyer said.
Water comes from inter-valley trade
The new plantings were "dependent on flows out of major tributary systems of the Goulburn and the Murrumbidgee," otherwise known as inter-valley trade (IVT), Dr Dyer said.
This extra IVT demand has put pressure on the Goulburn River, leading to erosion and impacts on native fish and plants as larger-than-normal volumes of water have flowed down the system.
In response, the Victorian Government has proposed limiting the amount of water that can flow down the Goulburn River, but horticultural groups have strongly opposed the changes.
The government released a Regulatory Impact Statement in March proposing limiting flows down the Goulburn River to 1100ML per day over summer and autumn, with three additional short pulses of water allowed "within prescribed rates".
This would be less than half current flows of about 2700 megalitres per day over summer and autumn.
The proposal is open to community consultation until the end of this month, but industry bodies have already registered their opposition to the plan in a detailed submission.
The Almond Board of Australia, Australian Table Grapes Association, Citrus Australia, Dried Fruits Australia, Murray Valley Winegrowers Inc and others have presented a joint submission stating the proposed changes would "stifle" post-pandemic economic growth.
"If the proposed trade restrictions come into being, the productive base of permanent plantings will be seriously jeopardised," the submission said.
Instead, they propose infrastructure projects to maintain existing water supplies, including infrastructure to "bypass … the Barmah Choke" and "water storage closer to horticultural production regions in the Murray Valley".
The Victorian Farmers Federation has acknowledged that "rules are needed" and said in its submission it "support(s) the efforts of the Victorian Government", but that "every effort should be made to ensure that the new rules enable existing irrigation in the Victorian Mallee (to) be supplied with minimal restrictions".
Meanwhile, environment groups have urged careful management to protect Goulburn River ecosystems.
Native Fish Australia warned "high flows of cold water" had a "negative effect ... on native fish spawning", in particular the critically endangered Murray cod, the trout cod and the Macquarie perch, while the Goulburn Valley Environment Group said high flows had "undermined" the long-term health of the river.
A webinar on the Goulburn to Murray trade review will be held on Thursday, followed by an online Q&A on April 20. Community responses will be considered before the government announces its final decision in June.
