A LOT has transpired in the four years since the “Danslide”, where Labor’s thumping win in the state election left the Coalition with just 27 of the 88 seats in the Lower House.
That triumph gave Premier Daniel Andrews extraordinary power and, when the COVID-19 pandemic hit, he wielded it in a way that will be the subject of debate for generations to come.
Whatever your view of the Victorian Government’s handling of the pandemic, there can be little doubt as to the divisions the heavy-handed approach caused in the community.
And while the COVID-19 crisis is now largely in the rear vision mirror, just how the electorate reacts on Saturday in the state election will be fascinating.
In many ways, Andrews has been the face of two campaigns in this election.
Not only is he again the poster boy for his own Labor government, but also for the Liberals and Nationals, who have banked on the anti-Dan sentiment in the community to be their best shot at an upset victory.
The Coalition’s attack ads against Dan have been constant, reminding voters of his presence in our lives during the past few years. It’s not so much about voting Matthew Guy in, it’s urging you to vote Dan out. Who knows, it may even work.
But to govern in its own right, the Coalition will need to gain 18 seats, or a uniform swing of between 9 and 11 per cent. That Labor remains a $1.15 favourite with the TAB and the Coalition is at $5.50 to win suggests it’s very much a long shot.
Perhaps the more likely outcome is a swing of between four and six per cent that could force Labor into minority government.
Which is where the Mildura seat becomes very interesting.
Current sitting member Ali Cupper is an independent who was left with little power in the Lower House given Labor’s crushing majority when she upset The Nationals’ Peter Crisp in the 2018 election.
Despite that, Ms Cupper had some significant wins, most notably seeing the management of Mildura Base Hospital returning to public hands.
She also boasts that she secured three times the amount of health care funding for the electorate than her predecessor achieved in the past 12 years.
But ahead of this state election, Labor has gone ice cold on this electorate.
It has failed to make public a hospital master plan that was due to be released in April, it has failed to explain the reasons for its delay, a timeline for its redevelopment or costings.
Ms Cupper has slammed the government over the issue, saying the community has been “betrayed”.
And she has promised that she will not forget, which could make her vote as an independent a lot more powerful if Labor is forced into minority government.
But she is in for a hell of a fight to hold the seat.
The Coalition have thrown plenty at winning back Mildura, with Nationals candidate Jade Benham and Liberals candidate Paul Matheson running robust campaigns.
They have promised to build a new hospital with a $750 million commitment, which they admit will only get the ball rolling on what will be an enormously costly project, but one this community desperately needs.
Preferences suggest Ms Benham is the best chance to oust Ms Cupper if the Coalition is to win this seat, but that is yet to play out.
To our 11 candidates running for the seat of Mildura, best of luck.
Whatever your political leanings, they have put their hands up to represent our community, and for that deserve our respect.
Will it be another “Danslide”? Will there be an upset? Will there be a dramatic swing? And who will win Mildura?
Vote well.
